Published model
House defaultConviction with ballast: hard money carries the largest combined weight, and a productive core still does the compounding.
BTC 40 · Gold 15 · Equity 35 · Reserve 10 · worst year 2018 −33%
Identical for every visitor
The centre of gravity of this library. Hard money carries the largest combined weight and a productive core still does the compounding. It asks for more conviction than Foundation and charges a steeper ride for it.
A supply schedule no committee can change, held for decades rather than traded. At this weight it is the model. Bitcoin fell roughly 77% from its 2021 peak to its 2022 trough; at 40%, that sleeve alone took about 31 points off the blend before anything else moved. If that sentence is uncomfortable on a calm day, it will be unbearable on a bad one, and Foundation is the honest alternative.
Written down here as BTCUSD · your instrument, your ruling
Ballast with a record measured in centuries rather than cycles. Since 2000 gold has compounded at roughly 8% a year above US consumer prices, over a window that begins near a multi-decade low in its price. That is history, not a promise. Its job here is to behave differently from bitcoin in the year bitcoin behaves worst — which it has often, though not always, done.
Written down here as SGLN · your instrument, your ruling
Ownership of the world's businesses. Smaller here than in Foundation, and still the sleeve that pays in cash flows rather than in scarcity.
Written down here as VWCE · your instrument, your ruling
Cash with a job you write down. In a model this volatile the reserve is not a return decision: it is what keeps a drawdown from turning into a sale.
Cash, held on purpose · you choose where it sits
No bonds. That is a worldview, stated as one, and not a measurement. A government bond is a promise denominated in the unit whose supply the issuer controls, and this plan is built on owning things whose supply no issuer controls. It is not a claim that every bond always loses: inflation-linked bonds exist and have at times protected purchasing power. It is a choice about what to own, and your own plan is free to disagree with it.
Euro-area broad money has grown at roughly 5% a year over the past two decades. Measured consumer prices rose at roughly 2% over the same period. Those are two different numbers measuring two different things, and merging them into one alarming figure would be dishonest. The gap is why this plan holds hard assets. It is not a forecast of your grocery bill.
Worst calendar year
2018
That year's fall
−33%
The whole blend, in one calendar year.
The share of the blend lost in 2018
Measuring how long this blend took to regain its previous peak needs a daily blended series we do not hold, and an unsourced number is worse than an absent one.
History, not a forecast. Blend arithmetic on published calendar-year returns for the four sleeves at these fixed weights, measured in US dollars and without rebalancing inside the year. It is not a backtest of any fund, and a euro investor's own figure differs by however the euro moved against the dollar that year.
A fall of this size can happen again, and is considered normal behaviour for this model rather than a malfunction.
Not stable, and not income for money you will spend soon.
Not a way to reach a defined amount of euro by a defined date. A fiat goal on a short clock is better served by an instrument that promises a fiat amount.
Not survivable on borrowed conviction. This blend has lost about a third in a calendar year, and the bitcoin sleeve on its own has been down 77% from peak to trough. Someone who has not decided, in advance and in writing, what they would do at those numbers will decide it at the worst moment instead.
Not a plan that steers itself. Nothing here rebalances on its own or changes when the market changes. The plan you write is the plan that runs.
This page is the same page for everyone who reads it. Starting a plan from this model copies it: the weights arrive as sleeves in your builder, the funds arrive preselected from the curated list, Bitcoin arrives as a venue still to choose, and the reserve stays cash. Every copied weight arrives unaffirmed — you confirm or change each one before a plan exists. The model itself never changes.
This page is the same page a member reads. Accounts are invite-gated while the beta is small.