Published model

Sovereign

The highest conviction in the library, and the deepest drawdowns — written down before the next bad year rather than explained after it.

BTC 60 · Gold 10 · Equity 20 · Reserve 10 · worst year 2018 −46%

Identical for every visitor

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What it holds, and why

The highest conviction in the library and the deepest drawdowns. It exists for a view that is already formed, and its whole purpose is to put the arithmetic of that view in front of you before the next bad year rather than after it.

Bitcoin

60%

A supply schedule no committee can change, held for decades rather than traded. At 60% the rest of the model is commentary. Bitcoin fell roughly 77% from its 2021 peak to its 2022 trough; at this weight that sleeve alone took about 46 points off the blend before anything else moved, and the blend has fallen more than 40% in a single calendar year within the past decade. That is the normal behaviour of this mix, not a malfunction.

Written down here as BTCUSD · your instrument, your ruling

Gold

10%

Ballast, at the smallest weight in the library. Since 2000 gold has compounded at roughly 8% a year above US consumer prices, over a window that begins near a multi-decade low in its price. That is history, not a promise. At 10% it softens a bad year; it does not prevent one.

Written down here as SGLN · your instrument, your ruling

Productive equity

20%

The smallest productive sleeve here. It stays because a plan holding nothing that produces cash flows is a position rather than a portfolio.

Written down here as VWCE · your instrument, your ruling

Reserve

10%

Cash with a job you write down. It is the same 10% as everywhere else in this library and it is doing more work: in a model that can halve, the reserve is the difference between a drawdown and a sale.

Cash, held on purpose · you choose where it sits

What this model does not hold

No bonds. That is a worldview, stated as one, and not a measurement. A government bond is a promise denominated in the unit whose supply the issuer controls, and this plan is built on owning things whose supply no issuer controls. It is not a claim that every bond always loses: inflation-linked bonds exist and have at times protected purchasing power. It is a choice about what to own, and your own plan is free to disagree with it.

On debasement, measured honestly

Euro-area broad money has grown at roughly 5% a year over the past two decades. Measured consumer prices rose at roughly 2% over the same period. Those are two different numbers measuring two different things, and merging them into one alarming figure would be dishonest. The gap is why this plan holds hard assets. It is not a forecast of your grocery bill.

How it has behaved

Worst calendar year

2018

That year's fall

−46%

The whole blend, in one calendar year.

The share of the blend lost in 2018

Months back to the previous peaknot published

Measuring how long this blend took to regain its previous peak needs a daily blended series we do not hold, and an unsourced number is worse than an absent one.

History, not a forecast. Blend arithmetic on published calendar-year returns for the four sleeves at these fixed weights, measured in US dollars and without rebalancing inside the year. It is not a backtest of any fund, and a euro investor's own figure differs by however the euro moved against the dollar that year.

A fall of this size can happen again, and is considered normal behaviour for this model rather than a malfunction.

What this is not

Not stable, not income, and not money you can plan to spend on a date.

Not a first plan. Someone meeting a 46% year for the first time while living it will sell at the bottom, and selling at the bottom is the only outcome this product exists to prevent. Foundation and Hard Money Core hold the same worldview at weights that can be held through.

Not a leveraged Foundation. It is a different acceptance, not a bigger bet on the same one: the productive sleeve that carries the other models is half its size here, so there is less inside the plan doing anything different from bitcoin.

Not a plan that steers itself. Nothing here rebalances on its own or changes when the market changes. The plan you write is the plan that runs.

Into your plan

This page is the same page for everyone who reads it. Starting a plan from this model copies it: the weights arrive as sleeves in your builder, the funds arrive preselected from the curated list, Bitcoin arrives as a venue still to choose, and the reserve stays cash. Every copied weight arrives unaffirmed — you confirm or change each one before a plan exists. The model itself never changes.

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This page is the same page a member reads. Accounts are invite-gated while the beta is small.